An archive of all previous blog posts can be found below.
My articles that have been published elsewhere can be found here.
My assorted research papers and statistics projects can be found here.
Read Some of My Papers from Graduate School!
Papers and projects about polling averages, presidential forecasts, congressional forecasts, election demographics, and the incumbency advantage.
Read Some of My Papers from the Spring 2020 Semester!
Papers and projects about the 2020 election, data journalism, electoral reform, authoritarian leadership, and this blog.
How I’m Feeling Now: Site Maintenance and (Good) News
The One Where Bradley Graduates College, Gets Into Grad School, and Starts His First Job
Five Takeaways from Super Tuesday 2020
The results of Super Tuesday fundamentally altered the trajectory of the 2020 Democratic primary, likely setting the pace for the race going forward. Here are five key points from the night, with speculation of what’s to come.
The Lesson of the 2020 Iowa Caucuses: Be Careful With Anecdotes
While the 2020 Iowa caucuses were nothing short of chaotic, the news coverage was equally messy. Some reflection and tips heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
Read One of My Papers from the Fall 2019 Semester!
A statistical look at the strongest predictors of state-level turnout during the 2016 presidential election.
Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg: A Tale of Two Billionaire 2020 Democrats
Billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg have spent exorbitant amounts of their own fortunes to fund their 2020 presidential campaigns. Here’s a deep dive on how that’s shifted public opinion so far.
Is Joni Ernst at Risk of Losing Her Iowa Senate Seat?
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst seemed like a sure shot to win a second term. Now, though, her chances of reelection are less certain. What’s driving this shift?
The Three Polling Numbers That Look Really Good for Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren’s second-place polling average is reinforced by strong showings among high-information voters, an energized base, and seemingly broad support across the Democratic primary electorate.
House Retirements Are on the Rise, But What’s Driving Them?
So far, 19 Representatives have announced their retirements in 2020. Are they scared of losing re-election, or is something else causing the exodus?
Putting Monmouth’s Poll in Context
Monmouth University’s newest poll was one of the most buzzworthy of the primary. Here’s why it should (and shouldn’t) be taken with a grain of salt.
So Far, Early 2020 Polls Paint an Uphill Battle for Bernie Sanders
Despite a strong 2016 presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders has seemingly failed to capture the same magic in 2020.
It Makes Sense That Joe Biden’s Base Makes No Sense
Joe Biden certainly has all the qualities of a frontrunner, but the coalition he’s built has some peculiar traits. Here’s why that’s okay.
Breaking Down Pete Buttigieg’s Polling Gains
Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana and 2020 Democratic candidate, has been polling well these past few weeks. I provide a summary of the polls and offer potential explanations.
Chart: Comparing 2020 Democrats’ Twitter Followers to Their Polling Numbers
In an age where social media can make or break a presidential candidate, it can be helpful to check in on metrics like Twitter follower counts. See how the 2020 Democrats are doing, both on Twitter and in the polls.
Eliminating the Electoral College Has Long Been a Partisan Issue…And It Isn’t Just About Eliminating the Electoral College
Many Democrats have once again called for the abolition of the Electoral College. Here’s a brief history of this movement and some proof that it feeds into larger political discussions.
In Choosing Not to Run for President, Sherrod Brown Made the Right Decision
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he won’t seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. Based on his state’s shifting political climate, that was probably the best move.
Chart: How Presidential Campaign Announcements Have Affected Polling Numbers in 2020
A quick look at the impact that presidential campaign announcements have had on the polling numbers of 2020 Democrats so far.
What Should Beto O’Rourke Do?
2018 phenom Beto O’Rourke has a tough choice ahead of him: should he run for the presidency or the Senate? Here are some compelling arguments on both sides.
Amy Klobuchar Outperforms Her Benchmarks, But So Does Everyone Else
With Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar considering a bid for the presidency, many are pointing to her previous electoral victories as proof that she’ll be strong in 2020. I break down how valid these claims are.
How The Chicago Mayoral Race Is Playing Out
Heading into next month, there are too many Cooks in Cook County. I break down the big names in Chicago’s mayoral race.
The Supposed Power of Early Campaigns
Do candidates gain an inherent advantage by announcing their campaigns before anyone else?
Just How Unpopular is Elizabeth Warren?
Elizabeth Warren’s popularity has been called into question as of late. Are naysayers’ claims valid?
The First Selzer Poll of the 2020 Election Has Been Released — Here’s Why That’s Important
Selzer and Co. has released its first 2020 Iowa caucus poll. I look at the results and implications.
Listen to Me on a Podcast!
I was the guest host on this week’s episode of the Western Kentucky University Political Science Podcast. Check it out!
Read My Papers from the Fall 2018 Semester!
Papers about presidential convention bounces and the public perception of polls.
The Strange 2020 Presidential Candidates: A First Look
In the lull between the 2018 midterms and the beginning of the 2020 primary season, it’s fun to learn about some of the more obscure “candidates.”
Quick Thoughts: The Tabulation Process for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Was Ridiculous
“What now?” “Hit ‘Save As’.”
Election 2018 Thoughts
My post-mortem on last night’s results.
Can Duncan Hunter Pull Through?
California Representative Duncan Hunter has been mired in scandal. As a result, he not only has to worry about his reputation; his chances of re-election are also at stake.
Races to Watch: Virginia’s 5th Congressional District
A brief rundown of the 2018 race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional district.
What’s Happening in Florida?
Florida is home to close races for both Governor and Senate, but they’re diverging. What gives?
Races to Watch: California’s 48th Congressional District
A brief rundown of the 2018 race in California’s 48th Congressional district.
Races to Watch: Ohio Governor
A brief rundown of the 2018 race for Ohio governor.
Quick Thoughts: Vulnerable GOP Senate Seats Are Seeming Less So
Texas and Tennessee are home to two of the most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Recent polls show that the GOP is gaining back ground.
Don’t Get Worked Up About That New Jersey Poll Just Yet
A new poll from Stockton University has Democrat Bob Menendez behind in New Jersey. Hmm…
Someone Poll a Vulnerable Democratic Senate Seat. Please.
Despite hosting key Senate races, states like Missouri and North Dakota haven’t seen very much national attention. What gives?
Data Journalists Are Addressing Critics. But Will Their Efforts Work?
Following the 2016 election, sites like FiveThirtyEight and The Upshot have tried to make data journalism more accessible. What are they doing, and does it work?
Quick Thoughts: Democrats Lead Big in Recent Generic Ballot Polls
New generic ballot polls are looking good for Democrats. But how worried should the GOP be?
Election 2018: What to Watch For Post-Labor Day
Labor Day is all about grilling, deal-hunting, and elections.
What Even is This Nevada Senate Campaign Ad?
A new GOP-backed Senate ad in Nevada brings this year’s most important voter issue to the forefront — Jane Fonda’s 1972 trip to Vietnam.
People Are Talking About Impeachment…A Lot
The trials of Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort had reignited calls for the impeachment of Donald Trump. Just how many calls are there?
Generic Ballot Polls Are All Over the Place
Everyone’s talking about the generic ballot. What is it, what’s it saying, and why should you care?
House Democrats are Turning Against Nancy Pelosi. Most of Them are in Red Districts.
Outlets and pundits have long deemed Nancy Pelosi a liability, and those seeking House seats are beginning to agree. But there’s one crucial, missing detail: a candidate’s objection may be based on the areas in which they are running.
First Past the Poll 