An archive of all previous blog posts can be found below.
My articles that have been published elsewhere can be found here.
My assorted research papers and statistics projects can be found here.
Papers and projects about polling averages, presidential forecasts, congressional forecasts, election demographics, and the incumbency advantage.
Papers and projects about the 2020 election, data journalism, electoral reform, authoritarian leadership, and this blog.
The One Where Bradley Graduates College, Gets Into Grad School, and Starts His First Job
The results of Super Tuesday fundamentally altered the trajectory of the 2020 Democratic primary, likely setting the pace for the race going forward. Here are five key points from the night, with speculation of what’s to come.
While the 2020 Iowa caucuses were nothing short of chaotic, the news coverage was equally messy. Some reflection and tips heading into New Hampshire and beyond.
A statistical look at the strongest predictors of state-level turnout during the 2016 presidential election.
Billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg have spent exorbitant amounts of their own fortunes to fund their 2020 presidential campaigns. Here’s a deep dive on how that’s shifted public opinion so far.
Iowa Senator Joni Ernst seemed like a sure shot to win a second term. Now, though, her chances of reelection are less certain. What’s driving this shift?
Elizabeth Warren’s second-place polling average is reinforced by strong showings among high-information voters, an energized base, and seemingly broad support across the Democratic primary electorate.
So far, 19 Representatives have announced their retirements in 2020. Are they scared of losing re-election, or is something else causing the exodus?
Monmouth University’s newest poll was one of the most buzzworthy of the primary. Here’s why it should (and shouldn’t) be taken with a grain of salt.
Despite a strong 2016 presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders has seemingly failed to capture the same magic in 2020.
Joe Biden certainly has all the qualities of a frontrunner, but the coalition he’s built has some peculiar traits. Here’s why that’s okay.
Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana and 2020 Democratic candidate, has been polling well these past few weeks. I provide a summary of the polls and offer potential explanations.
In an age where social media can make or break a presidential candidate, it can be helpful to check in on metrics like Twitter follower counts. See how the 2020 Democrats are doing, both on Twitter and in the polls.
Many Democrats have once again called for the abolition of the Electoral College. Here’s a brief history of this movement and some proof that it feeds into larger political discussions.
Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he won’t seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. Based on his state’s shifting political climate, that was probably the best move.
A quick look at the impact that presidential campaign announcements have had on the polling numbers of 2020 Democrats so far.
2018 phenom Beto O’Rourke has a tough choice ahead of him: should he run for the presidency or the Senate? Here are some compelling arguments on both sides.
With Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar considering a bid for the presidency, many are pointing to her previous electoral victories as proof that she’ll be strong in 2020. I break down how valid these claims are.
Heading into next month, there are too many Cooks in Cook County. I break down the big names in Chicago’s mayoral race.
Do candidates gain an inherent advantage by announcing their campaigns before anyone else?
Elizabeth Warren’s popularity has been called into question as of late. Are naysayers’ claims valid?
Selzer and Co. has released its first 2020 Iowa caucus poll. I look at the results and implications.
I was the guest host on this week’s episode of the Western Kentucky University Political Science Podcast. Check it out!
Papers about presidential convention bounces and the public perception of polls.
In the lull between the 2018 midterms and the beginning of the 2020 primary season, it’s fun to learn about some of the more obscure “candidates.”
“What now?” “Hit ‘Save As’.”
My post-mortem on last night’s results.
California Representative Duncan Hunter has been mired in scandal. As a result, he not only has to worry about his reputation; his chances of re-election are also at stake.
A brief rundown of the 2018 race in Virginia’s 5th Congressional district.
Florida is home to close races for both Governor and Senate, but they’re diverging. What gives?
A brief rundown of the 2018 race in California’s 48th Congressional district.
A brief rundown of the 2018 race for Ohio governor.
Texas and Tennessee are home to two of the most vulnerable Republican-held Senate seats. Recent polls show that the GOP is gaining back ground.
A new poll from Stockton University has Democrat Bob Menendez behind in New Jersey. Hmm…
Despite hosting key Senate races, states like Missouri and North Dakota haven’t seen very much national attention. What gives?
Following the 2016 election, sites like FiveThirtyEight and The Upshot have tried to make data journalism more accessible. What are they doing, and does it work?
New generic ballot polls are looking good for Democrats. But how worried should the GOP be?
Labor Day is all about grilling, deal-hunting, and elections.
A new GOP-backed Senate ad in Nevada brings this year’s most important voter issue to the forefront — Jane Fonda’s 1972 trip to Vietnam.
The trials of Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort had reignited calls for the impeachment of Donald Trump. Just how many calls are there?
Everyone’s talking about the generic ballot. What is it, what’s it saying, and why should you care?
Outlets and pundits have long deemed Nancy Pelosi a liability, and those seeking House seats are beginning to agree. But there’s one crucial, missing detail: a candidate’s objection may be based on the areas in which they are running.