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First Past the Poll

First Past the Poll

Bradley Wascher's Blog About Political Statistics

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Category: Polls: 2020

Read Some of My Papers from Graduate School!

March 25, 2022March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Papers and projects about polling averages, presidential forecasts, congressional forecasts, election demographics, and the incumbency advantage.

The Three Polling Numbers That Look Really Good for Elizabeth Warren

September 23, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Elizabeth Warren's second-place polling average is reinforced by strong showings among high-information voters, an energized base, and seemingly broad support across the Democratic primary electorate.

Putting Monmouth’s Poll in Context

August 27, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Monmouth University's newest poll was one of the most buzzworthy of the primary. Here's why it should (and shouldn't) be taken with a grain of salt.

So Far, Early 2020 Polls Paint an Uphill Battle for Bernie Sanders

June 5, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Despite a strong 2016 presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders has seemingly failed to capture the same magic in 2020.

It Makes Sense That Joe Biden’s Base Makes No Sense

May 14, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Joe Biden certainly has all the qualities of a frontrunner, but the coalition he's built has some peculiar traits. Here's why that's okay.

Breaking Down Pete Buttigieg’s Polling Gains

April 12, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana and 2020 Democratic candidate, has been polling well these past few weeks. I provide a summary of the polls and offer potential explanations.

Chart: Comparing 2020 Democrats’ Twitter Followers to Their Polling Numbers

March 28, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

In an age where social media can make or break a presidential candidate, it can be helpful to check in on metrics like Twitter follower counts. See how the 2020 Democrats are doing, both on Twitter and in the polls.

Chart: How Presidential Campaign Announcements Have Affected Polling Numbers in 2020

February 22, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

A quick look at the impact that presidential campaign announcements have had on the polling numbers of 2020 Democrats so far.

Amy Klobuchar Outperforms Her Benchmarks, But So Does Everyone Else

February 6, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

With Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar considering a bid for the presidency, many are pointing to her previous electoral victories as proof that she'll be strong in 2020. I break down how valid these claims are.

The First Selzer Poll of the 2020 Election Has Been Released — Here’s Why That’s Important

December 16, 2018March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 2 Comments

Selzer and Co. has released its first 2020 Iowa caucus poll. I look at the results and implications.

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