Papers and projects about polling averages, presidential forecasts, congressional forecasts, election demographics, and the incumbency advantage.
Category: Polls: Survey Methodology
Read One of My Papers from the Fall 2019 Semester!
A statistical look at the strongest predictors of state-level turnout during the 2016 presidential election.
Putting Monmouth’s Poll in Context
Monmouth University's newest poll was one of the most buzzworthy of the primary. Here's why it should (and shouldn't) be taken with a grain of salt.
The First Selzer Poll of the 2020 Election Has Been Released — Here’s Why That’s Important
Selzer and Co. has released its first 2020 Iowa caucus poll. I look at the results and implications.
Read My Papers from the Fall 2018 Semester!
Papers about presidential convention bounces and the public perception of polls.
What’s Happening in Florida?
Florida is home to close races for both Governor and Senate, but they're diverging. What gives?
Don’t Get Worked Up About That New Jersey Poll Just Yet
A new poll from Stockton University has Democrat Bob Menendez behind in New Jersey. Hmm...
Someone Poll a Vulnerable Democratic Senate Seat. Please.
Despite hosting key Senate races, states like Missouri and North Dakota haven't seen very much national attention. What gives?
Data Journalists Are Addressing Critics. But Will Their Efforts Work?
Following the 2016 election, sites like FiveThirtyEight and The Upshot have tried to make data journalism more accessible. What are they doing, and does it work?
Election 2018: What to Watch For Post-Labor Day
Labor Day is all about grilling, deal-hunting, and elections.
First Past the Poll 