Papers and projects about polling averages, presidential forecasts, congressional forecasts, election demographics, and the incumbency advantage.
A statistical look at the strongest predictors of state-level turnout during the 2016 presidential election.
Monmouth University's newest poll was one of the most buzzworthy of the primary. Here's why it should (and shouldn't) be taken with a grain of salt.
Selzer and Co. has released its first 2020 Iowa caucus poll. I look at the results and implications.
Papers about presidential convention bounces and the public perception of polls.
Florida is home to close races for both Governor and Senate, but they're diverging. What gives?
A new poll from Stockton University has Democrat Bob Menendez behind in New Jersey. Hmm...
Despite hosting key Senate races, states like Missouri and North Dakota haven't seen very much national attention. What gives?
Following the 2016 election, sites like FiveThirtyEight and The Upshot have tried to make data journalism more accessible. What are they doing, and does it work?
Labor Day is all about grilling, deal-hunting, and elections.