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First Past the Poll

First Past the Poll

Bradley Wascher's Blog About Political Statistics

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Author: Bradley Wascher

Bradley is a political data analyst. First Past the Poll is his blog.

Read Some of My Papers from Graduate School!

March 25, 2022March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Papers and projects about polling averages, presidential forecasts, congressional forecasts, election demographics, and the incumbency advantage.

Read Some of My Papers from the Spring 2020 Semester!

July 21, 2020March 25, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Papers and projects about the 2020 election, data journalism, electoral reform, authoritarian leadership, and this blog.

How I’m Feeling Now: Site Maintenance and (Good) News

May 31, 2020March 25, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

The One Where Bradley Graduates College, Gets Into Grad School, and Starts His First Job

Five Takeaways from Super Tuesday 2020

March 5, 2020July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

The results of Super Tuesday fundamentally altered the trajectory of the 2020 Democratic primary, likely setting the pace for the race going forward. Here are five key points from the night, with speculation of what's to come.

The Lesson of the 2020 Iowa Caucuses: Be Careful With Anecdotes

February 4, 2020July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

While the 2020 Iowa caucuses were nothing short of chaotic, the news coverage was equally messy. Some reflection and tips heading into New Hampshire and beyond.

Read One of My Papers from the Fall 2019 Semester!

December 25, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

A statistical look at the strongest predictors of state-level turnout during the 2016 presidential election.

Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg: A Tale of Two Billionaire 2020 Democrats

December 24, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

Billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg have spent exorbitant amounts of their own fortunes to fund their 2020 presidential campaigns. Here's a deep dive on how that's shifted public opinion so far.

Is Joni Ernst at Risk of Losing Her Iowa Senate Seat?

October 29, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Iowa Senator Joni Ernst seemed like a sure shot to win a second term. Now, though, her chances of reelection are less certain. What's driving this shift?

The Three Polling Numbers That Look Really Good for Elizabeth Warren

September 23, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Elizabeth Warren's second-place polling average is reinforced by strong showings among high-information voters, an energized base, and seemingly broad support across the Democratic primary electorate.

House Retirements Are on the Rise, But What’s Driving Them?

September 6, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

So far, 19 Representatives have announced their retirements in 2020. Are they scared of losing re-election, or is something else causing the exodus?

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