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Bradley Wascher's Blog About Political Statistics

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Category: Elections: President

Breaking Down Pete Buttigieg’s Polling Gains

April 12, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana and 2020 Democratic candidate, has been polling well these past few weeks. I provide a summary of the polls and offer potential explanations.

Chart: Comparing 2020 Democrats’ Twitter Followers to Their Polling Numbers

March 28, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

In an age where social media can make or break a presidential candidate, it can be helpful to check in on metrics like Twitter follower counts. See how the 2020 Democrats are doing, both on Twitter and in the polls.

In Choosing Not to Run for President, Sherrod Brown Made the Right Decision

March 8, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he won't seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. Based on his state's shifting political climate, that was probably the best move.

Chart: How Presidential Campaign Announcements Have Affected Polling Numbers in 2020

February 22, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

A quick look at the impact that presidential campaign announcements have had on the polling numbers of 2020 Democrats so far.

What Should Beto O’Rourke Do?

February 17, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

2018 phenom Beto O'Rourke has a tough choice ahead of him: should he run for the presidency or the Senate? Here are some compelling arguments on both sides.

Amy Klobuchar Outperforms Her Benchmarks, But So Does Everyone Else

February 6, 2019March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

With Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar considering a bid for the presidency, many are pointing to her previous electoral victories as proof that she'll be strong in 2020. I break down how valid these claims are.

The Supposed Power of Early Campaigns

January 10, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Do candidates gain an inherent advantage by announcing their campaigns before anyone else?

Just How Unpopular is Elizabeth Warren?

January 3, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 2 Comments

Elizabeth Warren's popularity has been called into question as of late. Are naysayers' claims valid?

The First Selzer Poll of the 2020 Election Has Been Released — Here’s Why That’s Important

December 16, 2018March 27, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 2 Comments

Selzer and Co. has released its first 2020 Iowa caucus poll. I look at the results and implications.

Read My Papers from the Fall 2018 Semester!

December 13, 2018March 25, 2022 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

Papers about presidential convention bounces and the public perception of polls.

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