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First Past the Poll

Bradley Wascher's Blog About Political Statistics

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So Far, Early 2020 Polls Paint an Uphill Battle for Bernie Sanders

June 5, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Despite a strong 2016 presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders has seemingly failed to capture the same magic in 2020.

It Makes Sense That Joe Biden’s Base Makes No Sense

May 14, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Joe Biden certainly has all the qualities of a frontrunner, but the coalition he's built has some peculiar traits. Here's why that's okay.

Breaking Down Pete Buttigieg’s Polling Gains

April 12, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana and 2020 Democratic candidate, has been polling well these past few weeks. I provide a summary of the polls and offer potential explanations.

Chart: Comparing 2020 Democrats’ Twitter Followers to Their Polling Numbers

March 28, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

In an age where social media can make or break a presidential candidate, it can be helpful to check in on metrics like Twitter follower counts. See how the 2020 Democrats are doing, both on Twitter and in the polls.

Eliminating the Electoral College Has Long Been a Partisan Issue…And It Isn’t Just About Eliminating the Electoral College

March 20, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Many Democrats have once again called for the abolition of the Electoral College. Here's a brief history of this movement and some proof that it feeds into larger political discussions.

In Choosing Not to Run for President, Sherrod Brown Made the Right Decision

March 8, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he won't seek the Democratic nomination in 2020. Based on his state's shifting political climate, that was probably the best move.

Chart: How Presidential Campaign Announcements Have Affected Polling Numbers in 2020

February 22, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

A quick look at the impact that presidential campaign announcements have had on the polling numbers of 2020 Democrats so far.

What Should Beto O’Rourke Do?

February 17, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

2018 phenom Beto O'Rourke has a tough choice ahead of him: should he run for the presidency or the Senate? Here are some compelling arguments on both sides.

Amy Klobuchar Outperforms Her Benchmarks, But So Does Everyone Else

February 6, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

With Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar considering a bid for the presidency, many are pointing to her previous electoral victories as proof that she'll be strong in 2020. I break down how valid these claims are.

How The Chicago Mayoral Race Is Playing Out

January 25, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Heading into next month, there are too many Cooks in Cook County. I break down the big names in Chicago's mayoral race.

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