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First Past the Poll

Bradley Wascher's Blog About Political Statistics

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Category: President

Read Some of My Papers from the Spring 2020 Semester!

July 21, 2020July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

A collection of six essays I wrote for my final semester of undergrad.

Five Takeaways from Super Tuesday 2020

March 5, 2020July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

The results of Super Tuesday fundamentally altered the trajectory of the 2020 Democratic primary, likely setting the pace for the race going forward. Here are five key points from the night, with speculation of what's to come.

The Lesson of the 2020 Iowa Caucuses: Be Careful With Anecdotes

February 4, 2020July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

While the 2020 Iowa caucuses were nothing short of chaotic, the news coverage was equally messy. Some reflection and tips heading into New Hampshire and beyond.

Read One of My Papers from the Fall 2019 Semester!

December 25, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Here's an assignment from the first semester of my senior year of college. It's all about strongest predictors of state-level turnout during the 2016 presidential election.

Tom Steyer and Mike Bloomberg: A Tale of Two Billionaire 2020 Democrats

December 24, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ 1 Comment

Billionaires Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg have spent exorbitant amounts of their own fortunes to fund their 2020 presidential campaigns. Here's a deep dive on how that's shifted public opinion so far.

The Three Polling Numbers That Look Really Good for Elizabeth Warren

September 23, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Elizabeth Warren's second-place polling average is reinforced by strong showings among high-information voters, an energized base, and seemingly broad support across the Democratic primary electorate.

Putting Monmouth’s Poll in Context

August 27, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Monmouth University's newest poll was one of the most buzzworthy of the primary. Here's why it should (and shouldn't) be taken with a grain of salt.

So Far, Early 2020 Polls Paint an Uphill Battle for Bernie Sanders

June 5, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Despite a strong 2016 presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders has seemingly failed to capture the same magic in 2020.

It Makes Sense That Joe Biden’s Base Makes No Sense

May 14, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Joe Biden certainly has all the qualities of a frontrunner, but the coalition he's built has some peculiar traits. Here's why that's okay.

Breaking Down Pete Buttigieg’s Polling Gains

April 12, 2019July 23, 2020 ~ Bradley Wascher ~ Leave a comment

Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana and 2020 Democratic candidate, has been polling well these past few weeks. I provide a summary of the polls and offer potential explanations.

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